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Manager Watch

Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, the 2025 read.

Manager Watch: where 2025 actually delivered, where it didn't, and what the asset-mix moves say.

Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan released its 2025 results on March 10, 2026: 6.7% total-fund net return, $279.4 billion in net assets, $31.2 billion preliminary funding surplus, 13th consecutive year fully funded. Underneath the headline, the asset-class breakdown tells the story: venture growth +30.2% (including Anthropic Series F), private equity -5.3% on disciplined year-end valuation marks, and an honest -5.0% versus a benchmark concentrated in the AI-tied US large-caps.

Jacob Cesarone May 28, 2026 7 min read

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board primer in this column[Manager Watch] set out the structural read on Canada’s largest institutional manager. Ontario Teachers’ is the obvious next entry: roughly a third of the size by net assets, materially older (the plan dates to 1990 in its current form), and operating under a defined-benefit funding regime that gives the published results a different texture than CPP Investments’ generational view. The 2025 numbers are on the record. The point of this piece is to read them.

The headline numbers.

OTPP’s 2025 results, calendar year ended December 31, 2025, released March 10, 2026:[1]

The funding picture is the part that arguably matters most to members. Thirteen straight years above 100% is a long stretch; the funding surplus grew despite the 2025 return stepping down from 2024’s 9.4%, because contributions and investment income still cleared benefits paid plus administrative expenses with room to spare. The funding ratio improved from 110% to 111%.

The 5-percentage-point benchmark gap.

The fund underperformed its 2025 benchmark by 5.0%, “or $12.0 billion in negative value add.”[1] OTPP’s framing in the press release identifies “continued robust performance in our public market-linked benchmarks” as the principal driver, with “constrained performance of certain assets particularly the private equity, infrastructure and real estate asset classes” as the contributing factor.[1]

This is the same pattern CPP Investments described for its fiscal 2026: public-market benchmarks heavy in AI-tied US large-caps outran diversified institutional portfolios.[Manager Watch — CPPIB primer] The cross-cohort signal is consistent. A reader trying to assess whether the value-add gap is methodologically diagnostic or a single-year anomaly will want to watch the 2026 result against the 2026 benchmark.

The asset-class breakdown.

The table below combines OTPP’s published 2025 asset-class actual returns against their benchmarks.[1]

Asset class2025 actual2025 benchmark
Public equity15.0%13.9%
Private equity-5.3%18.0%
Venture growth30.2%18.5%
Fixed income2.6%2.6%
Commodities27.0%27.0%
Natural resources1.8%0.0%
Inflation hedge-4.7%-4.7%
Real estate-3.1%2.2%
Infrastructure1.8%7.8%
Credit5.8%4.5%
Total fund6.7%11.7%

Three observations.

Venture growth +30.2% is the line allocators will read first. OTPP participated in Anthropic’s Series F, Quantexa’s Series F, Darwinbox, Grafana Labs, StackAdapt, and others.[1] A 30.2% venture-growth result in a year when family-office surveys were describing 5% expected returns and 48% liquidity-improving objectives is a notable lane.[Allocators Desk — FO research wave] It also outperformed its own benchmark by 11.7 percentage points, which on a smaller absolute base than the major asset classes still represents a clear active-management win for the cohort.

Private equity -5.3% versus a +18.0% benchmark. The CEO’s framing is direct: “Our private equity and real estate teams had a more challenging year given broad sector headwinds. We responded with disciplined year-end valuation adjustments to reflect current market conditions, which weighed on performance.”[1] The point worth dwelling on is the “disciplined year-end valuation adjustments.” Institutional allocators read this as marking the book honestly when the underlying environment turned, which is operationally the right move even though it shows up as a negative return. The contrast with a +18.0% benchmark almost certainly reflects benchmark composition (likely a public-market PE proxy) rather than peer institutional performance.

Real assets split. Real estate at -3.1% versus a +2.2% benchmark; infrastructure at +1.8% versus a +7.8% benchmark. Both also reflect disciplined marking versus a benchmark that runs heavier on public proxies. CPP Investments’ fiscal 2026 press release describes real assets, “particularly energy and infrastructure assets,” as a meaningful contributor in their period;[Manager Watch — CPPIB primer] the divergence between the two reads at least partly tracks the different reporting periods (CPP’s fiscal year ends March 31, OTPP’s December 31).

The asset mix at year-end.

OTPP’s net-investments composition as at December 31, 2025:[1]

A few mix observations.

The private-equity allocation is roughly stable in absolute dollars but down in share. Private equity moved from $60.4 billion (23%) at end of 2024 to $50.8 billion (19%) at end of 2025; venture growth grew from $10.4 billion (4%) to $15.3 billion (6%). The combined private-and-VC share went from 27% to 25% of net investments. This is consistent with the broad family-office cohort reading, where some publishers see private markets stabilising and some see modest reduction; OTPP is in the modest-reduction camp.

Public equity grew share materially. From $37.4 billion (14%) to $50.0 billion (18%). At least partly this is mechanical (the public equity benchmark returned 13.9%) and partly reflects rebalancing or allocation intent. The press release does not separate the two.

Fixed income share declined from 30% to 23%. A meaningful drop on a total fund of this scale, which the press release does not directly explain in the published prose. Inflation-sensitive and real assets remained relatively stable.

What changed at the operating layer.

The 2025 release surfaces several operating-layer moves worth noting for a Manager Watch reader.[1]

Climate posture.

OTPP “achieved a 50% reduction of portfolio carbon emissions intensity in 2025 compared to our 2019 baseline, exceeding our 2025 emissions intensity target.”[1]

Subsequent to year-end, the plan published its 2026-2030 Climate Strategy, “which introduced a 2030 target of $70 billion in Climate Transition Aligned (‘CTA’) assets, encompassing private market investments in companies that are decarbonizing their operations and those enabling the global energy transition. Over the next five years, our goal is to double our CTA assets from their approximate value of $35 billion.”[1]

The $35 billion baseline equates to roughly 12.5% of December 31, 2025 net assets; doubling to $70 billion over five years would put CTA assets in the 20%+ range of likely net assets, assuming the fund grows. This is a substantive climate-allocation commitment from a Big-Eight Canadian pension and worth a separate piece in the column.

What this column tracks from here on OTPP.

Three watch items for the next year.

  1. Whether the 2026 benchmark gap narrows or widens. A second consecutive year of -5.0% value add against the benchmark would suggest the diversification framing is doing more work than the active-management layer in the published numbers.

  2. The private-equity mark-down arc. OTPP has now publicly described the marks as “disciplined year-end valuation adjustments.” The 2026 release will say whether 2025 was the trough or whether further marks are coming.

  3. Domestic-allocation policy and the federal-provincial conversation. The press release notes ongoing discussions with federal and provincial governments on “nation-building” investments. If those materialise as concrete commitments, they will show up first in the quarterly news stream and then in the next annual asset-mix breakdown.

Methodological notes.

Comments and pointers to coverage worth folding in at [email protected].


Sources

  1. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Ontario Teachers’ announces positive 2025 results, press release, Toronto, 10 March 2026. https://www.otpp.com/en-ca/about-us/news-and-insights/2026/ontario-teachers-announces-positive-2025-results/. Saved as otpp-2025-results-press-2026-05-29.md in the research library under pensions/2026/.
  2. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, 2025 Annual Report — Ontario Teachers’ at 35, March 6, 2026 release. https://www.otpp.com/content/dam/otpp/documents/reports/2025-ar/otpp-2025-annual-report-eng.pdf. Cited as the full document; specific page references will appear in follow-up pieces drawing on the annual report directly.