CME Tracker · TheBuySide

Expected returns by asset class

MEDIAN 0.0% · 0 ASSET CLASSES · VINTAGE ·

#	Sub-class	Asset class	Engine	Expected return	Vol	Return / risk	Our estimate (◆) vs where peer houses land · 0–16%

How to read each row. The red diamond is TheBuySide's own estimate (geometric, USD, nominal, 10-year). The grey box-and-whisker shows where outside forecasting houses land: the box is the middle half of them (25th–median–75th percentile), the line is the full low-to-high range. "22 comparable houses" is how many peers are directly like-for-like (USD currency, nominal returns, 10-year horizon) and so make up that box. The tags after it are peers we counted but set aside because their numbers are not apples-to-apples: real-return (inflation-adjusted, e.g. Research Affiliates, GMO, AQR), a non-USD currency (CAD/EUR, e.g. CIBC, TD, National Bank, Amundi), or a horizon other than 10 years (other-horizon, e.g. 5yr / 20yr / 30yr). They are never blended into the spread, so no two incomparable numbers are ever pooled.

Latest cross-engine view · base scenario · as of June 18, 2026

Cross-engine aggregate

For each asset class, the panel below shows the cross-engine mean, the spread between engines (a structural-uncertainty signal), and each engine's standalone view. Numbers are annualised expected returns over the listed horizon. Source: TheBuySide internal CME engines; not republished house views.

Building-block Grinold-Kroner Damodaran ERP Cross-engine mean Min–max range

Asset class	Horizon	Mean	Min	Max	Spread
CAD Cash cash_cad	10y	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%	0 bps
USD Cash cash_usd	10y	3.62%	3.62%	3.62%	0 bps
Canadian Equity equity_canada	10y	5.73%	5.54%	5.92%	38 bps
US Equity equity_us	10y	5.41%	5.22%	5.69%	47 bps
US HY Corporate fi_us_hy	10y	5.22%	5.22%	5.22%	0 bps
US IG Corporate fi_us_ig	10y	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%	0 bps
US TIPS / Inflation-Linked fi_us_tips	10y	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	0 bps
US Treasury 3-10Y fi_us_treasury_int	10y	4.70%	4.70%	4.70%	0 bps
US Treasury 20-30Y fi_us_treasury_long	10y	5.30%	5.30%	5.30%	0 bps
US Treasury 1-3Y fi_us_treasury_short	10y	3.72%	3.72%	3.72%	0 bps
Equity Long/Short hf_eqls	10y	5.03%	5.03%	5.03%	0 bps
Event-Driven hf_event	10y	4.82%	4.82%	4.82%	0 bps
Global Macro hf_macro	10y	5.04%	5.04%	5.04%	0 bps
Managed Futures / CTA hf_mf	10y	4.60%	4.60%	4.60%	0 bps
Multi-Strategy hf_multistrat	10y	4.37%	4.37%	4.37%	0 bps
Relative Value / Arb hf_relval	10y	3.29%	3.29%	3.29%	0 bps
Infra Core infra_core	10y	9.35%	9.35%	9.35%	0 bps
Infra Value-Add / Build infra_valueadd	10y	8.50%	8.50%	8.50%	0 bps
Direct Lending Senior pc_dl_senior	10y	7.70%	7.70%	7.70%	0 bps
Opportunistic Credit pc_opportunistic	10y	8.52%	8.52%	8.52%	0 bps
PE Large Buyout pe_buyout_large	10y	8.22%	8.22%	8.22%	0 bps
PE Mid-Market Buyout pe_buyout_mid	10y	9.66%	9.66%	9.66%	0 bps
PE Growth pe_growth	10y	7.34%	7.34%	7.34%	0 bps
PE Secondaries pe_secondaries	10y	10.78%	10.78%	10.78%	0 bps
Early-Stage VC pe_vc_early	10y	9.16%	9.16%	9.16%	0 bps
Late-Stage VC pe_vc_late	10y	9.10%	9.10%	9.10%	0 bps
Listed Infrastructure ra_infra_listed	10y	7.08%	7.08%	7.08%	0 bps
Global REITs ra_reits_global	10y	7.54%	7.54%	7.54%	0 bps
RE Core re_core	10y	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%	0 bps
RE Opportunistic re_opp	10y	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%	0 bps
RE Value-Add re_valueadd	10y	7.50%	7.50%	7.50%	0 bps

Engine breakdown

CAD Cash · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	2.25%	0.50%	settled	2026-06-12

USD Cash · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	3.62%	0.50%	settled	2026-06-12

Canadian Equity · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	5.55%	15.00%	settled	2026-06-12
grinold_kroner	5.92%	15.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US Equity · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	5.32%	16.00%	settled	2026-06-12
damodaran_erp	5.22%	16.00%	settled	2026-06-12
grinold_kroner	5.69%	16.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

US HY Corporate · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	5.22%	11.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US IG Corporate · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	5.24%	7.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US TIPS / Inflation-Linked · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	2.30%	7.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US Treasury 3-10Y · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
acm_term_structure	4.70%	7.00%	settled	2026-06-12
building_block	4.70%	7.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US Treasury 20-30Y · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	5.30%	13.00%	settled	2026-06-12

US Treasury 1-3Y · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
building_block	3.72%	2.50%	settled	2026-06-12

Equity Long/Short · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	5.03%	9.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

Event-Driven · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	4.82%	8.50%	house_view	2026-06-12

Global Macro · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	5.04%	9.00%	judgment	2026-06-12

Managed Futures / CTA · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	4.60%	10.00%	settled	2026-06-12

Multi-Strategy · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	4.36%	6.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

Relative Value / Arb · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
hedge_funds	3.29%	6.50%	judgment	2026-06-12

Infra Core · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	9.35%	12.50%	house_view	2026-06-12

Infra Value-Add / Build · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	8.50%	16.50%	judgment	2026-06-12

Direct Lending Senior · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
private_credit	7.70%	14.01%	settled	2026-06-12

Opportunistic Credit · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
private_credit	8.52%	16.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

PE Large Buyout · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	8.22%	14.50%	house_view	2026-06-12

PE Mid-Market Buyout · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	9.66%	16.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

PE Growth · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	7.34%	17.00%	judgment	2026-06-12

PE Secondaries · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	10.78%	11.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

Early-Stage VC · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	9.16%	25.00%	judgment	2026-06-12

Late-Stage VC · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
pe_vc	9.10%	22.50%	judgment	2026-06-12

Listed Infrastructure · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	7.08%	15.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

Global REITs · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	7.54%	19.00%	settled	2026-06-12

RE Core · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	6.20%	13.00%	house_view	2026-06-12

RE Opportunistic · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	9.00%	25.00%	judgment	2026-06-12

RE Value-Add · 10y

Engine	Expected return	Expected vol	Confidence	As of
real_assets	7.50%	18.50%	judgment	2026-06-12

Quarterlies

First quarterly piece ships with v1 launch.