What the cross-house panel shows
Panel readout.
Seven houses, eight asset classes, one curve. Where the published numbers sit, where the houses disagree, and what carries a caveat.
The panel tracks nine houses that publish capital-market expectations. Seven of them publish a 10-year, USD nominal expected-return set, and those seven make up the grid below. Each house enters at its latest available vintage: five at 2024, one at 2023, one at 2022. The consensus is the simple mean of what is on the record.
10-yr expected return, USD nominal · consensus, range and house count per class
| Asset class | Consensus | Range | Houses | TBS estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10y | 4.0% | 3.2 to 4.4 | 6 | 4.7% |
| US IG credit | 5.2% | 3.9 to 5.8 | 6 | 5.4% |
| US high yield | 5.9% | 5.3 to 6.5 | 6 | 7.2% |
| US large cap | 6.2% | 4.6 to 7.4 | 7 | 5.4% |
| REITs | 7.2% | 5.1 to 8.7 | 4 | 5.5% |
| Intl DM large cap | 8.6% | 6.3 to 12.6 | 7 | 6.5% |
| EM equity | 9.4% | 7.1 to 13.1 | 6 | 8.5% |
| CA large cap | 10.6% | single house | 1 | 5.6% |
Houses anonymized · latest vintage per house, 2022 to 2024 · as of 2026-06-11
The level
The repricing of fixed income is the panel’s clearest record. The 10-year Treasury consensus was 1.4% in the 2020 vintages and stands at 4.2% in the 2024 vintages. Investment-grade credit moved from 1.8% to 5.5% over the same publication years. The houses now publish bond expectations in the neighbourhood of their equity numbers from four years ago.
The disagreement
Equity is where the houses part ways. International developed large cap carries a 6.3 to 12.6 range across seven houses, the widest spread on the panel, and emerging-market equity runs 7.1 to 13.1. US large cap is the tighter conversation: seven houses inside 4.6 to 7.4, consensus at 6.2. The most optimistic prints in the international and EM rows come from a house reporting a 2022 vintage, so part of that spread is publication timing, not present-day conviction.
One caveat
Canadian large cap shows a 10.6% figure with one house reporting, from a 2022 vintage. A single print is not a consensus, and the grid labels it accordingly.
Our number
The TBS estimate, our in-house engine consensus from the same primary documents, sits below the panel on international developed (6.5 vs 8.6) and EM equity (8.5 vs 9.4), and above it on US high yield (7.2 vs 5.9). The gap is itself information, and it is on the grid next to every consensus so the reader can see where we differ from the published record.
Aggregate of published house CMEs · houses anonymized, identities withheld pending licensing · mixed vintage (2022-2024) · as of 2026-06-11 · members only